Trade war between China-America … falling oil, careful! Recession is near

Goldman Sachs Report: The effect of trade war is now visible on the oil market. Goldman Sachs has rapidly cut the price estimate of its Brent crude and WTI oil. The average price of Brent is now estimated to be $ 69 per barrel and WTI to be $ 66 per barrel this year. Earlier this estimate was 5 to 6 percent more than this.

What did Goldman Sachs say?

The Oil Research Head of Goldman Sachs, Daan Struyven said in its report that the risk of recession is increasing by 2026 and the increasing production of OPEC+ from above… All these reasons we feel that the prices of crude oil may fall further. Not only this, the estimate of Brent crude for 2026 has now been estimated to $ 62 and WTI to $ 59. That is, there is a possibility of a decline in the long term.

Historical decline in oil prices

On Thursday and Friday, crude oil prices fell by more than 7 per cent. Brent crude price was $ 65.58 per barrel. While the WTI was $ 61.99 per barrel. Both these prices are at the lowest level of 4 years. Brent has fallen 10.9 percent in a week and WTI 10.6 percent has fallen, this decline is the biggest in the last two years.

What are the reasons for this heavy decline?

There are some major reasons behind this decline in crude oil. For example, China increased 34 percent tariff on the US, which deepened the trade war. In fact, the Trump government imposed heavy taxes on several countries one after the other, which is the highest in the last 100 years. Apart from this, OPEC+ countries suddenly announced to increase production from May and now they will bring back 411,000 barrels per day to the market. Earlier this figure was 135,000. At the same time, the Russian court rejected the petition to close the Caspian pipeline terminal, which will continue to supply from Kazakhstan. All these incidents have put heavy pressure on oil prices.

Recession of recession?

JPMorgan is now seeing 60 percent chance that by the end of this year, there can be a slowdown worldwide. Earlier this estimate was 40 percent. HSBC has also reduced the estimate of oil demand. Now they feel that the daily demand in 2025 will increase only 0.9 million barrels, earlier it was 1 million.

What does this mean for you?

If you are an investor, then this is the time to take decisions very cleverly. Crude falling prices may bring relief for some sectors (eg aviation, paints, FMCG), but the fear of trade war and recession is making the market uncertain.

Disclaimer: (The information provided here is being given only for information. It is necessary to tell here that the investment in the market is subject to risks. Always consult expert before investing as an investor. Abplive.com is never advised to invest money here.)

Also read: Donald Trump’s decision and China’s retaliation dropped gold! Right now so many thousands can fall