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US Recession: At this time, there is a lot of discussion about the American economy all over the world. There is also a special reason for that. When there is a recession in America, then its threat resonates the whole world. Amid the pressure in global trade due to the imposition of tariffs by President Donald Trump, India is making efforts to normalize its business relations with both countries China and America. In such a situation, even if there is a recession in the American, it is going to have very little effect on India’s growth rate.
Let us know what economists and investors are saying about this-
1- How many near recession America?
On 7 April in the Economist Poll of Reuters, it was said that there is a 45 per cent probability of recession in the next 12 months, which is the highest since December 2023. The reason for this is the forecast of GDP regarding 2025 and the fall of the Capex plan. Moody’s analyst Mark Jindi said in the podcast of March 2025 that by the end of 2025, there is about 40 percent of the recession. In the Opinion of Bloomberg, Author John said that such decisions are being taken by the wrong policy of 2008.
2-Will the global recession come from American recession?
If there is a recession in America, then its effect will be global in a situation when financial shock will be received like 2008. Otherwise, its effect will be less. The IMF (International Monetary Fund) dismissed the possibility of global recession, saying that the 2001 US recession did not have an impact globally. The world’s GDP was growing at a speed of 2.5 percent but business growth had fallen.
The global recession was covered between 2007-09, which for the first time after the First World War, when GDP moved to 1.3 percent in 2009. However, due to the lockdown in 2020, the global GDP came to 3 percent, which happened for the first time since 1945. Obviously, even if there is a slowdown in America in such a situation, then experts believe that India will have the least impact.
