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Local gold prices in India are expected to remain firm in the second half of 2025, with a possible rise towards the psychological Rs 1,00,000 mark per 10 grams, according to a report by ICICI Bank Global Markets. Currently, the yellow metal is hovering in the Rs 96,500–Rs 98,500 range. “Local gold prices are expected to continue trading with an upside bias moving from a near-term range of Rs 96,500 to Rs 98,500 per ten grams to Rs 98,500 per ten grams to the Rs 100,000 per ten grams range in H22025,” the report said, quoted by ANI. Despite a drop in global prices recently, domestic gold prices rose by 0.6% in June, helped by a slight 0.2% weakening of the Rupee. However, high gold prices appear to be dampening physical demand. Imports in May dropped to $2.5 billion from $3.1 billion in April. Jewellery demand remained weak, while investment-related buying stayed strong. In fact, data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) showed a net inflow of Rs 2.92 billion into gold ETFs in May, bouncing back after two straight months of outflows. Globally too, investor interest in gold has remained strong. The SPDR Gold ETF holdings rose from 930 tonnes on 1st June to 948 tonnes on 1st July. Speculative net long positions also increased by around 13,000 lots last month. Still, gold’s sharp rally has cooled off lately. Prices have stayed flat over the past month as safe-haven buying eased. Year-to-date, gold is still up 28% in 2025. One key reason for this pause is the improved global outlook. A ceasefire between Israel and Iran has calmed geopolitical tensions. At the same time, the US has struck trade deals with the UK and Vietnam, and is making progress with Japan, India and the EU. A trade framework with China is also in place and expected to be finalised by August. “The upshot is that the easing in geopolitical tensions and expectations that trade-war 2.0 could ease in magnitude have worked to limit further sharp upside emerging in gold prices,” the report added.(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market and other asset classes given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)
