Bad news for stock market! Market will fall from trade war and recession, Nomura released report

Stability is currently visible in the Indian stock market, but the international brokerage firm Nomura has expressed some concern about the coming time. He has reduced the target of Nifty to 24,970 by March 2026. This means that a slight increase of only 3 percent in the market is expected from the current levels.

What did Nomura say?

Nomura believes that these cuts have been made due to potential trump tariffs in the US, decline in earnings and fears of global recession. However, if the atmosphere of risk remains stable, then the return of foreign investors is expected, especially when there has been tremendous selling in the last six months.

Nomura has also added in its assessment that they have increased the old valuation multiple of 18.5x to 19.5x, so that the decline in bond yields can be taken into consideration. He also informed that during this period, the domestic sector, such as consumers and financials, have done well, while exporters such as IT, Metals, Auto and Pharma have lagged behind.

The effect of tariff will be seen

Nomura also believes that India can make a profit from a possible trade agreement with the US and the supply chain is in a position to benefit from relaxation. Apart from this, India’s economy is currently stable and additional benefits are also available for the falling commodity and crude oil prices.

However, he has also warned that the business agreement with the US will not be so easily because the US now wants to solve non-tariff barriers like structural issues, not just tariffs. For this reason, these deals may be delayed. Apart from this, even though the tariff decreases, he will remain at a high level and will maintain uncertainty in the market.

GDP growth estimated to be 5.8 percent

Nomura says that the current earnings also have a risk of decline, as India’s GDP growth for FY26 is estimated to be 5.8 per cent, which is less than the current expectations. In such a situation, the speed of companies’ earnings cannot remain as fast as.

Finally, Nomura also added that in the near future equity valuations could get some support from the decline in bond yields, provided the risk premium does not bounce. According to him, the correction that has been seen in the global equity market so far, is not much and the biggest headlines of tariff or trade war have probably left behind.

Also read: Adani Ports shares today to decline a big decline, company recently announced a $ 2.5 billion deal

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