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The US federal reserve will hold off on making any changes to interest rates as it waits for clearer signs on President Donald Trump’s economic policies‘ effect on the economy, Fed chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday.
“For the time being, we are well positioned to wait for greater clarity,” Powell said in prepared remarks to be delivered at the Economic Club of Chicago, citing uncertainty around major areas like immigration, tax policy, regulation, and trade tariffs.
Since early April, when Trump unveiled a wide-ranging set of tariffs, markets have been on a rollercoaster, only to pause a week later. These back-and-forth tariff fears have led to speculation over whether the Fed might step in with rate cuts or other measures to calm investor nerves.
However, economists say that the reserve is unlikely to intervene unless there is a major market breakdown for treasury securities or other malfunctions.
Acknowledging the tariffs Powell said that the levies rolled out by the administration are “significantly larger than anticipated.”
“The same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth,” he said.
While he expected the resulting inflation to be short-lived, Powell also admitted it “could also be more persistent,” reflecting a concern expressed by the majority of the Fed’ 19 member interest rate setting committee in their meeting last month.
However, not all Fed officials are on the same page. Earlier this week, Fed governor Christopher Waller downplayed the long-term impact of even steep tariffs, saying they would likely be temporary. At the same time, he also cautioned that such measures could drag on the economy and potentially trigger a recession.
In case the economy slows sharply, even with elevated inflation, he would support cutting interest rates “sooner, and to a greater extent than I had previously thought.”
Others, like Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, remain more focused on keeping inflation in check and appear less inclined to back near-term rate cuts.
Despite the uncertainty, the broader US economy is holding up well for now. Job growth has remained solid and inflation eased in March. However, sharp declines in consumer and business confidence have economists watching closely for any signs of softening in spending or investment.
