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NASA has identified asteroid 2024 YR4 with a 1.3% chance of impacting Earth on December 22, 2032, posing significant risk
The potential damage resulting from an impact by 2024 YR4 is difficult to ascertain precisely due to its large size. (Representative/AP)
NASA has announced that a large asteroidestimated to be larger than a football field, is travelling towards Earth at high speed. Calculations indicate a higher-than-average chance of the asteroid impacting Earth in 2032.
According to the International Astronomy Centre (IAC) in Abu Dhabi, the asteroid, designated 2024 YR4, will make its closest approach to Earth in 2032, at which point a collision is possible.
Discovered on December 27, 2024, by NASA’s Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS), the asteroid is estimated to have a radius between 40 and 100 metres, making it twice the size of a cricket pitch. An impact from an asteroid of this size could cause significant damage.
The possibility of 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth is a subject of ongoing analysis. It has been assigned a rating of 3 on the Torino scale, meaning that there is a 1 in 77 chance of impact, equivalent to a 1.3% probability. The asteroid’s closest approach to Earth is predicted for 22 December 2032.
The IAC report notes that the asteroid previously passed close to Earth on December 25, 2024, at a distance of 829,000 km. It is expected to approach Earth again on December 17, 2028, though the risk of impact at that time is considered low. However, the December 22, 2032 approach is projected to bring the asteroid significantly closer to Earth. The asteroid passes by Earth approximately every four years, and its trajectory appears to be bringing it progressively closer to the planet with each pass.
The potential damage resulting from an impact by 2024 YR4 is difficult to ascertain precisely due to its large size. Experts suggest that an impact from an asteroid of this magnitude, or even a near miss, could potentially devastate an entire city, leading to significant loss of life. Furthermore, the widespread air pollution resulting from such an event could have global consequences.
Current projections estimate that on December 22, 2032, the asteroid will pass within 127,699 km of Earth. Regions potentially in the asteroid’s path include South America, the Pacific Ocean, the Atlantic Ocean, and Central Africa. In terms of India, the northern part of the country is assessed to be within the potential impact zone.
Adding to the complexity, 2024 YR4 presents a significant observational challenge. The asteroid will only be visible for 34 days before it fades, diminishing its brightness and making it difficult to track. Scientists are actively working on strategies to effectively monitor the asteroid during this limited observation window.
2024 YR4 is comparable in size to the asteroid that impacted Tunguska, Siberia, in 1908. Scientists believe that if 2024 YR4 were to collide with Earth, the impact would primarily affect the immediate impact site. The Tunguska event flattened approximately 2,000 square kilometres of forest, incinerating 80 million trees. The energy released during that event was equivalent to 10 to 15 megatons of TNT.
